CONSTITUENCY PROJECTIONS
Polling & voter model
Simulated estimates with controlled uncertainty, not live opinion polling or a guaranteed result.
Projected candidate vote shares
Historical comparisons aggregate by party, not candidate identity
| Candidate / party | Projected share | Polling | Party change vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38.7%± 3.0 pp | -0.3 pp | ||
| 32.2%± 3.0 pp | +0.1 pp | ||
| 12.5%± 3.0 pp | +1.4 pp | ||
| 8.4%± 3.0 pp | +1.2 pp | ||
| 8.2%± 3.0 pp | +1.2 pp |
Campaign polling trajectory
Shared model snapshots over the campaign
How support is calculated
Starting support is based on the verified 2024 party vote where available, or clearly simulated editable estimates otherwise. National climate, approval, recognition, local connection, campaign effectiveness, spending and issue salience modify these weights. Withdrawn candidates may transfer 65% of support to a tactical endorsement.
On polling day, a seeded random draw perturbs vote shares and turnout. Twelve batches reveal the resulting finite ballot population; polling never directly supplies the final vote totals.
Previous general election
4 July 2024 · Westminster • July 2024